The United Nations is calling on all Member States to collaborate and prepare for the potential cascading impacts of a widespread “digital pandemic,” aiming to avert a nightmare scenario where digital systems fail.
These risks are not theoretical, having been observed both on Earth and in space. A notable example is a 2012 solar storm that narrowly missed Earth, which had the potential to cripple power grids and communication networks across continents.
Doreen Bogdan-Martin, head of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), warned, “The common denominator of these unintentional disruptions is their tendency to cascade with impacts that spread across sectors like finance, like healthcare, transport, energy, and communications. And this can often happen simultaneously.”
Digital risks: From solar storms to extreme weather
The 1859 Carrington Event, a powerful solar storm, serves as a historical precedent, disrupting telegraph systems globally and causing electrical surges so intense that sparks flew from equipment, halting communications – the 19th-century equivalent of an internet outage.
The ITU-UNDRR report highlights that such non-intentional disruptions remain a significant threat today.
Beyond space weather, extreme heat, storms, and other climate-driven hazards are increasingly capable of damaging critical digital infrastructure, including power grids and data cables.
Given modern society’s profound dependence on digital networks, the consequences of failures could be global, rapid, and far more severe.
Read more: When digital systems fail: The hidden risks of our digital world
Furthermore, the “alarming growth of space debris” poses a threat to satellite launches, potentially limiting access to space. This could simultaneously jeopardize satellite navigation, financial networks, and weather forecasting, according to the ITU and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR).
Both agencies note that increasingly violent extreme weather, exacerbated by climate change, has already severed digital infrastructure, transforming disasters into humanitarian crises.
Cascading failures
The report indicates that digital disruptions are rarely isolated events, tending instead to cascade. Data reveals that up to 89% of digital disruptions linked to natural hazards stem from secondary effects rather than the initial event.
“The number of people ultimately affected can be up to 10 times higher than those initially exposed” to the original incident, the UN agencies stated.
Kamal Kishore, head of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), described the risk as systemic, noting, “Many of these risks are invisible. A lot of the times the interdependencies are not fully recognised.“
He cautioned that “failures in one system can quickly ripple outward.” For instance, he explained, “If the power systems go down…most telecom towers have a backup of nine hours and after that, it will not work. When telecoms do not work, the ATM machines do not work, [and] people do not have access to their own cash.”
Action points
Despite these risks, the report emphasizes that the solution is not to abandon digital technologies, which are “an essential driver of economic growth and innovation.” Instead, countries are urged to develop “21st-century workarounds” for system failures and enhance early warning systems.
Mr. Kishore of UNDRR stated, “There is an implicit assumption that when the digital systems fail, we will have analogue systems to fall back on. But those are no longer there.” He added, “The expertise, the equipment from that is getting outdated.”
Ms. Bogdan-Martin stressed, “It is time to start preparing for critical digital risks more intentionally.“
The report outlines six priority action areas, including improving risk mapping, strengthening international standards, enhancing cross-sector coordination, and building societal capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions.
It also advocates for increased global collaboration and improved use of early warning systems to translate risk awareness into concrete actions.
“This report…makes it very alive, very real,” Mr. Kishore remarked. “The risk of a digital disaster is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when.”
