The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced an 80% probability of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August, with this likelihood rising to 90% after that period.
“This update is important because El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns,” stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “The impact of an El Niño extends far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, affecting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods in all regions.”
Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, running 6°C above average, are fueling concerns that this El Niño could exacerbate existing heat, leading to devastating impacts on vulnerable and unprepared communities worldwide.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reacted to the WMO’s warning, emphasizing, “The world must treat this as an urgent climate alert, as it is.”
Saulo noted that the latest El Niño in 2023-24 is among the five strongest El Niños on record and played a role in the record global temperatures observed in 2024.
According to the WMO, there is “no evidence” that climate change is increasing the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. However, it can amplify their associated impacts, as warmer oceans and atmosphere provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather events like heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Preparing for El Niño
“We understand El Niño; thanks to science and thanks to many countries’ investments in being prepared, we can be much better prepared for El Niño,” the WMO chief told reporters in Geneva. “But on top of El Niño, we have extreme events, and these extreme events require more and more [investment].”
In the coming months, the WMO’s role, in conjunction with weather agencies worldwide, will involve monitoring conditions to inform decisions made by governments, humanitarian organizations, and other climate-sensitive sectors.
“Seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital for saving lives and mitigating the impact on our economies and communities,” Saulo insisted.
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
Both El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful natural climate patterns on Earth.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and east equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts for about nine to 12 months.
It usually begins to develop between March and June, reaches peak intensity between November and February, and its effects on global temperatures are generally most pronounced in the second year after its development.
ENSO events are categorized into four levels: weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The WMO stated, “Even a moderate El Niño makes certain weather and climate extremes more likely.”
