NASA revises asteroid 2024 YR4 threat, near-zero chance of Earth impact

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Tuesday, February 25, 2025

NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have further lowered the predicted likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, citing refined trajectory calculations based on new observational data.^{[SOURCE, SOURCE]} Initially discovered in December 2024,^[Source] the asteroid was estimated to have a 2.3% chance of collision on December 22, 2032.^[Source] However, as of February 24, 2025, NASA has updated its assessment, indicating on the Planetary Defense blog that “there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century.”^[Source]

Despite the diminished risk to Earth, there remains a 1.7% chance that 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon on the same date.^[Source] The asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet in diameter,^[Source] is comparable in size to the object that caused the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, which resulted in damage to several hundred acres of remote forest.^[Source]

Scientitsts planned to continue to monitor 2024 YR4 using various observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope. These efforts aim to refine estimates of the asteroid’s size and trajectory, enhancing planetary defense preparedness. NASA released a statement that read in-part; “While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity.”^[Source] Further assessments are planned, particularly as the asteroid is expected to make another close approach in 2028.^[Source]