United Nations researchers have warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the resulting crisis in the Strait of Hormuz affecting shipping and energy, has caused one of the most significant global trade shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This shock is reaching the Caribbean, highlighting the region’s heavy reliance on imports.
Low-income households are expected to be the most severely affected, according to analysis partnered by the UN World Food Programme (WFP). This follows a surge in crude oil prices to over $114 a barrel earlier this year, compounded by increased shipping costs, insurance fees, and delivery delays.
“Even with a fragile ceasefire now in place, volatility remains high – and the Caribbean, heavily reliant on imported food, is feeling the squeeze fast,” the report’s authors stated.
Adding to these concerns, experts estimate a 61 percent chance of the El Niño climate phenomenon occurring by mid-2026. Historically, El Niño has brought heatwaves, drought, and crop failures to the Caribbean, exacerbating existing challenges in vulnerable nations.
The Crisis in Brief:
- Fuel Shock Impacts Food Prices: Soaring oil and shipping costs are driving up prices for imported food, electricity, and transportation, putting pressure on household budgets across the Caribbean.
- High Dependence on Imports: The region’s significant reliance on food imports makes it particularly susceptible to global price spikes and supply chain disruptions.
- Rising Drought Concerns: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates a 60 percent probability of an El Niño weather event this year. A strong El Niño could lead to severe dry spells in countries such as Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water resources.
- Pre-existing Food Insecurity: Food prices have already risen by 55 to 60 percent since 2018, causing hardship for many families. Food insecurity levels remain considerably above pre-pandemic figures.
- Consecutive Disasters: Repeated climate-related disasters, including Hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, have diminished households’ capacity to cope with and recover from new shocks. Consequently, even minor price increases or crop losses could push many families into crisis.
Warning Signs
Authorities in Belize are preparing for drought conditions, while farmers throughout the Caribbean region are concerned about diminishing harvests due to reduced rainfall and rising temperatures.
The impact on low-income families could be severe, as food and transportation constitute a substantial portion of their expenditures. This means that even moderate price increases will have a significant effect, potentially forcing many to reduce meal portions, switch to cheaper, less nutritious food options, or incur debt.
Small-scale farmers and fishers are also at risk, facing escalating operational costs alongside deteriorating weather conditions.
Experts emphasize that the coming months are crucial. Without prompt measures to stabilize markets, support incomes, and safeguard food production, the region risks descending into a deeper crisis.
Even if global conditions improve, the repercussions may endure, potentially trapping the Caribbean in a cycle of escalating prices, climate shocks, and growing food insecurity.
